Iron ore pellets have a high premium to sintered ore, with pellets of about $62 per ton and 62% of iron ore powder shipped to China at about $59/ton. The sintering machine can convert the sintered pow

根据WorldSteelDynamics的信息

在去年年底美国信息服务提供商WorldSteel Dynamics（WSD）发布的报告中，世界将迎来三场“寒潮”：一是全球经济增长放缓；二是全球经济增长放缓。另一种是原油，铝，铜，镍等。特定商品的价格较低；包括中国和美国在内的钢铁市场的压力也在增加。然而，一些寒意在2019年初消散，螺纹钢价格反弹。然而，在2019年夏季，由于中国螺纹钢供过于求（约68家钢厂争夺市场份额），螺纹钢出口价格的下行压力将再次出现。

未来可能会发生以下情况

2019年1月，HRB出口价格每吨下降了25美元，至约465美元（FOB价格）。该价格与中型钢厂的运营成本大致相同。由于钢铁公司主要原材料价格下跌，成本可能下降20美元/吨。 2019年春季，HRB出口价格升至每吨650-700美元（FOB价格）。这是一个短期价格，因为当它被运到国外港口时，其价格将高于许多国家的国内价格。许多人可能对HRB出口价格的短期上涨感到困惑，但是WSD对全球经济增长持乐观态度，原因如下：不太担心全球贸易摩擦会严重阻碍全球经济扩张；从长远来看，十年期美国国债利率仍处于宽松状态。

也许在下半年或更可能在2020年，热轧卷出口价格将急剧下跌，远低于目前的每吨490美元。同时，中国国内热轧卷出厂价已从每吨440美元降至每吨375-400美元。当然，鉴于中国的低价，中国钢厂将在世界市场上提供超低成本的热轧卷，在下一个低迷时期，热轧卷的出口价格可能会暂时跌至每吨400-425美元（FOB）。

螺纹钢价格下跌

自2018年7月1日以来，全球钢铁和其他商品市场的价格大幅下跌。自2018年7月开始，螺纹钢FOB价格已下跌约110美元或每吨20％，从每吨约600美元降至每吨490美元。当前报价范围非常大。俄罗斯钢厂低端产品价格约为每吨465美元，中国钢厂价格约为每吨480美元，其他大型亚太钢厂仍为520美元至550美元。每吨。之间。自2018年11月中旬以来，中国出厂价已从每吨482美元降至每吨453美元。自2018年7月初以来，美国现货价格已降至每吨860美元，而2017年7月的短暂峰值是每吨1,006美元。 （基于基于WSD的钢铁基准市场数据）。

未来几个月没有价格“死亡螺旋”

螺纹钢出口价格自2018年春季高峰以来已下跌约每吨120美元。此外，水务署认为，价格可能跌至每吨465美元或每吨25美元。但是，如果出现价格“死亡螺旋”，价格将跌至每吨375-400美元，这意味着该价格接近或略低于中等成本工厂的边际成本（原材料价格时）。也将低于当前价格）

水务署认为没有出现价格“死亡螺旋”的原因如下：

首先，自2016年秋季以来，全球钢铁行业已进入“保护时代”。许多国家的钢铁制造商迫切需要这个新的“时代”，因为并购和集中化并不能帮助他们在全球市场上恢复其“定价能力”。十年前，出口钢铁厂的数量比现在少得多。钢铁行业保护主义的新时代始于2016年春季，当时螺纹钢价格暴跌至每吨270美元（FOB价格），比中等成本的非中国和中国钢铁厂的边际成本低约40-70美元。 。

其次，尽管最近对钢铁制造商的原材料价格进行了调整，但仍处于较高水平。炼焦煤和冶金焦仍供不应求。炼焦煤的重要因素是澳大利亚的港口和铁路运输问题。自2017年夏季以来，中国政府已要求在冶金焦中关闭空气污染严重的装置的焦炉。澳大利亚离岸价硬焦煤的价格已从每吨225美元降至每吨215美元，从中国港口出口的冶金焦从每吨375美元降至每吨350美元。

Iron ore pellets have a high premium to sintered ore, with pellets of about $62 per ton and 62% of iron ore powder shipped to China at about $59/ton. The sintering machine can convert the sintered powder into a sintered ore – the cost is about US$25/ton, but due to the serious pollution of many sintering machines, the government has asked to close it, so the demand for pellets is very strong.

The price of shredded steel scrap used by US steel mills is high, about $345/ton. WSD believes that shredded scrap is close to iron ore and coking coal in use value. The price of heavy-melt scrap (80:20) shipped to Turkish ports is also high, with a recent decline of $10-15 per ton to around $320 per ton. The price of heavy-melt scrap in China is about US$315 per ton, which is a fairly high price for the following reasons: China's scrap supply has increased significantly – about 9% per year; to prevent scrap outflows, China has imposed 40% on scrap exports. Tariffs; new standards for imported scrap have significantly reduced scrap imports, as customs refused scraps with ferrous metals below 99%.

The price of high-quality scrap in the United States is relatively high, 380-400 US dollars per ton. Compared to low-cost steel mills with self-operated iron ore mines, the operating costs of small steel mill rebars based on electric furnaces are about $50/ton higher.

Third, global steel demand remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2018 after a seasonal decline due to holiday factors. Global steel production is still close to the highest level in history, with an annual output of about 1.85 billion tons. In October 2018, the annual output of Chinese steel mills was 972 million tons, an increase of 140 million tons year-on-year; and global steel production in October increased by 9% year-on-year.

Fourth, global steel demand has benefited from the rise in fixed asset investment spending (FAI) in many countries. Since employment growth is a top concern for policy makers in all countries, and artificial intelligence is accelerating the creation of machines and software to replace workers, policymakers are looking to increase capital expenditures and construction projects as a means of creating more jobs.

Fifth, given the current high prices and strong output in domestic markets, fewer steel mills are willing to export steel at ultra-low prices compared to a few years ago. Conversely, when profit margins are thin, many steel mills enjoy the “golden profit era” of the industry – an increase in exports may be seen as a necessary condition for factory balance. Note that the higher the profit per ton of steel in the domestic market, the lower the willingness of steel mills to export.

Summary

From July 1st, 2018 to November 2018, the prices of global steel and other commodity markets fell sharply. WSD believes that the “recession spiral” of rebar prices will not occur. The main reasons are as follows: On the macro level, trade friction will not seriously hinder The global economy is expanding, the global money supply is loose, and interest rates will be at a low level. In the steel industry, since the fall of 2016, the global steel industry has entered the “protection era”, and steel mills are enjoying the “golden profit era” of the industry. The export willingness is low; in terms of raw materials, the prices of steel raw materials are still at a fairly high level overall, and the operating costs of medium-cost steel mills are more supportive of prices. In addition, thanks to the rise in fixed-asset investment spending in many countries, global steel demand has maintained steady growth.

However, WSD expressed concern about the export price of rebar in the second half of 2019. Due to the oversupply of Chinese rebar in the summer of 2019, the downward pressure on rebar export prices will reappear. Chinese steel mills will provide ultra-low-cost HRBs for the world market. The export price of HRB may drop temporarily during the next downturn. To 400-425 US dollars per ton.

According to information from WorldSteelDynamics

In the report released by the US information service provider WorldSteel Dynamics (WSD) in the end of last year, the world will usher in three “cold waves”: one is the slowdown in global economic growth; the other is crude oil, aluminum, copper, nickel, etc. The price of specific commodities is lower; there is also an increase in pressure on the steel market including China and the United States. However, some chills dissipated in early 2019, and rebar prices rebounded. However, in the summer of 2019, due to the oversupply of Chinese rebar (about 68 steel mills vying for market share), downward pressure on rebar export prices will reappear.

The following situations may occur in the future

In January 2019, the HRB export price fell by $25 per ton to approximately $465 per ton (FOB price). This price is roughly the same as the operating cost of a medium cost steel mill. Costs may fall by $20/ton due to falling prices of major raw materials for steel companies. In the spring of 2019, HRB export prices rose to 650-700 US dollars per ton (FOB price). This is a short-term price, because when it is shipped to a foreign port, its price will be higher than the domestic price of many countries. Many people may be confused about the short-term rise in HRB export prices, but WSD is optimistic about global economic growth for the following reasons: Not too worried that global trade friction will seriously hinder global economic expansion; in the long run, 10-year US Treasury interest rates are still loose status.

Perhaps in the second half, or more likely, in 2020, HRB export prices will fall sharply, well below the current $490 per ton. At the same time, China's domestic HRB ex-factory price has dropped from 440 US dollars per ton to 375-400 US dollars per ton. Of course, given China's low prices, Chinese steel mills will provide ultra-low-cost HRBs on the world market, and HRB's export prices may temporarily fall to $400-425 (FOB) per tonne in the next downturn.

Rebar prices fell

Since July 1, 2018, prices in the global steel and other commodity markets have fallen sharply. Since the beginning of July 2018, rebar FOB prices have fallen by about $110 or 20% per ton, from about $600 per ton to $490 per ton. The current quotation range is very large. The price of low-end products of Russian steel mills is about 465 US dollars per ton, the price of Chinese steel mills is about 480 US dollars per ton, and other large Asia-Pacific steel mills are still 520 US dollars to 550 US dollars per ton. between. China's ex-factory price has fallen from $482 per tonne to $453 per tonne since mid-November 2018. US spot prices have fallen to $860 per tonne since the beginning of July 2018, while the short-lived peak in July 2017 was $1,006 per tonne (based on WSD-based steel benchmark market data).

There is no price "death spiral" in the coming months

Rebar export prices have fallen by about $120 per ton from the spring peak in 2018. Moreover, WSD believes that prices may fall to $465 per ton, or $25 per ton. However, if there is a price “death spiral”, the price will fall to $375-400 per ton, which means that the price is close to or slightly lower than the marginal cost of a medium-cost factory (when the raw material price will also be lower than the current price)

Here are a few reasons why WSD believes that the price "death spiral" does not appear:

First, since the fall of 2016, the global steel industry has entered the “protection era”. Iron and steel manufacturers in many countries are in desperate need of this new "era" because mergers and acquisitions and increased concentration do not help them to restore their "pricing power" in the global market. Ten years ago, the number of export steel mills was much smaller than it is now. The industry's new era of protectionism began in the spring of 2016, when rebar prices plunged to $270 per ton (FOB price), about 40-70 dollars per ton below the marginal cost of medium-cost non-Chinese and Chinese steel mills. .

Second, although the price of raw materials for steel manufacturers has recently been adjusted, it is still at a fairly high level. Coking coal and metallurgical coke are still in short supply. An important factor in coking coal is Australia's port and rail transportation problems. In the metallurgical coke, since the summer of 2017, the Chinese government has requested that it shut down coke ovens for units with excessive air pollution. The price of Australian FOB hard coking coal has dropped from US$225 per ton to US$215 per ton, and metallurgical coke exported from Chinese ports has dropped from US$375 per ton to US$350 per ton.

Iron ore pellets have a high premium to sintered ore, with pellets of about $62 per ton and 62% of iron ore powder shipped to China at about $59/ton. The sintering machine can convert the sintered powder into a sintered ore – the cost is about US$25/ton, but due to the serious pollution of many sintering machines, the government has asked to close it, so the demand for pellets is very strong.

The price of shredded steel scrap used by US steel mills is high, about $345/ton. WSD believes that shredded scrap is close to iron ore and coking coal in use value. The price of heavy-melt scrap (80:20) shipped to Turkish ports is also high, with a recent decline of $10-15 per ton to around $320 per ton. The price of heavy-melt scrap in China is about US$315 per ton, which is a fairly high price for the following reasons: China's scrap supply has increased significantly – about 9% per year; to prevent scrap outflows, China has imposed 40% on scrap exports. Tariffs; new standards for imported scrap have significantly reduced scrap imports, as customs refused scraps with ferrous metals below 99%.

The price of high-quality scrap in the United States is relatively high, 380-400 US dollars per ton. Compared to low-cost steel mills with self-operated iron ore mines, the operating costs of small steel mill rebars based on electric furnaces are about $50/ton higher.

Third, global steel demand remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2018 after a seasonal decline due to holiday factors. Global steel production is still close to the highest level in history, with an annual output of about 1.85 billion tons. In October 2018, the annual output of Chinese steel mills was 972 million tons, an increase of 140 million tons year-on-year; and global steel production in October increased by 9% year-on-year.

Fourth, global steel demand has benefited from the rise in fixed asset investment spending (FAI) in many countries. Since employment growth is a top concern for policy makers in all countries, and artificial intelligence is accelerating the creation of machines and software to replace workers, policymakers are looking to increase capital expenditures and construction projects as a means of creating more jobs.

Fifth, given the current high prices and strong output in domestic markets, fewer steel mills are willing to export steel at ultra-low prices compared to a few years ago. Conversely, when profit margins are thin, many steel mills enjoy the “golden profit era” of the industry – an increase in exports may be seen as a necessary condition for factory balance. Note that the higher the profit per ton of steel in the domestic market, the lower the willingness of steel mills to export.

Summary

From July 1st, 2018 to November 2018, the prices of global steel and other commodity markets fell sharply. WSD believes that the “recession spiral” of rebar prices will not occur. The main reasons are as follows: On the macro level, trade friction will not seriously hinder The global economy is expanding, the global money supply is loose, and interest rates will be at a low level. In the steel industry, since the fall of 2016, the global steel industry has entered the “protection era”, and steel mills are enjoying the “golden profit era” of the industry. The export willingness is low; in terms of raw materials, the prices of steel raw materials are still at a fairly high level overall, and the operating costs of medium-cost steel mills are more supportive of prices. In addition, thanks to the rise in fixed-asset investment spending in many countries, global steel demand has maintained steady growth.

However, WSD expressed concern about the export price of rebar in the second half of 2019. Due to the oversupply of Chinese rebar in the summer of 2019, the downward pressure on rebar export prices will reappear. Chinese steel mills will provide ultra-low-cost HRBs for the world market. The export price of HRB may drop temporarily during the next downturn. To 400-425 US dollars per ton.